JOHN DAY — A devastating fire season in 2024 resulted in the torching of 317,000 acres in Grant County, including 80,000 acres of private land, resulting in a massive loss of livestock forage on private pastures and public grazing allotments.

Now ranchers might have to contend with higher-than-normal feed prices as demand for the product increases.

Kyle Sullivan, district manager for the Grant Soil & Water Conservation District, said there isn’t a way to know how much of that blackened private land was rangeland that would generally be used for livestock grazing. He noted that even some forested land that burned might also have been available for cattle grazing.

Some ranchers were forced to move their livestock from their normal summer grazing lands onto fall or winter range much sooner than normal due to the fires. In more extreme cases, ranchers may already be feeding hay to their herds, months earlier than usual, due to the complete loss of all of their grazing allotments.

These circumstances will lead to a spike in the price of livestock feed, according to Tad Houpt, the co-owner of Pioneer Feed and Farm Supply in John Day.

“It’s going to put a squeeze on local hay production,” he said. “People are going to use a lot more hay, so much range burned up.”

Sullivan shared the same sentiment, saying that he thinks hay and alfalfa prices will be significantly affected by the fires simply due to how widespread the fires were and still are, not only in Oregon but in neighboring states as well.

“It’s going to definitely put a crunch onto demand and it’s going to increase the demand,” he said. “I don’t know the status of the supply but hopefully it’s going to meet the demand.”

The extent of scorched grazing lands might lead to a scenario where the available supply of livestock feed is insufficient to meet demand. Coupled with potentially high prices, that may lead to tough decisions for already struggling ranchers.

“I think that’s going to be something people are going to have to face because that’s the balance,” Sullivan said. “If you don’t have enough feed, you have to look at selling to reduce (livestock numbers) so you can sustain what you have.”

Sullivan has lived in Grant County since 1998 and has been with the Grant Soil and Water Conservation District since 2006. He said he’s never seen a fire season as intense as this year’s, which was still ongoing in mid-October.

As a result, it’s unclear when charred rangelands will fully recover and just how long the fires could affect both feed prices and livestock production in the county. Recovery could take much longer than just one or two years, according to Sullivan.

“Fire can really alter, particularly, grasslands,” he said.

That could open the door for invasive species such as cheatgrass, which don’t offer much nutrition for livestock, gaining a head start on more desirable native grasses. Sullivan said those invasive species can ultimately wind up outcompeting native grasses and completely changing the landscape, making formerly productive grazing land much less valuable for that purpose.

Sullivan said the ultimate long-term effects of the fires will not be immediately obvious, however.

One potential scenario is lands that were once suitable for raising livestock can no longer support grazing.

“It could be a possibility, I would think,” he said. “Especially if it’s as widespread or things really go south with the changes to the grasses and things like that — it would be hard to see how people can run the same numbers.”

“It’s going to put a squeeze on local hay production. People are going to use a lot more hay, so much range burned up.”

— Tad Houpt, co-owner, Pioneer Feed and Farm Supply, John Day